The most noteworthy moment for commercial space may really be coming.
This time, SpaceX is charging into the market, igniting not just Musk's own business empire, but the entire valuation system of the space economy.
But hey, guys, let's not get all fired up the moment we hear SpaceX, rockets, or Musk, as if missing this train means life loses meaning.
In investing, the worst thing isn't missing out, but rushing in just because you see a crowd.
What we should think about isn't the inspiring story of "Musk changing the world again" or blindly shouting "next decade" whenever a rocket launches.
The key question is: With SpaceX IPOing at a valuation of $1.77 trillion, will Wall Street reprice the entire commercial space sector?
If SpaceX itself is too expensive, too crowded, too hard to buy, will money turn to find the closest, most tradable alternative in the public market?
That's when one name steps forward.
Rocket Lab, ticker RKLB.
In today's episode, Brother Hai will break down three questions.
First, why SpaceX's IPO could change the valuation anchor of the entire space economy.
Second, why NASA's Artemis III and commercial lunar missions are transforming commercial space from a romantic story into a budget story.
Third, whether Rocket Lab is a truly resilient opportunity in the space economy or a high-valuation growth stock trap easily ambushed by sentiment.
Brother Hai will put his view upfront.
RKLB is not the second SpaceX, nor a ticket to financial freedom after buying.
But it is one of the few space companies in the public market that simultaneously possesses rocket launch capability, satellite systems business, government contracts, commercial clients, and a medium-class reusable rocket catalyst.
In other words, SpaceX is the industry ceiling, while Rocket Lab is more like a relatively accessible trading entry for ordinary investors in the public market.
Do not confuse these two concepts.
SpaceX is more like a space empire already half-built in the sky.
Falcon, Starlink, Starship, Starshield, defense missions, deep space exploration, and even the imagination of future orbital AI data centers are all packaged together.
It's expensive, indeed very expensive.
But it's not expensive without reason.
Because SpaceX raises not just its own company's valuation, but the entire imagination space of the commercial space industry.
Rocket Lab is different.
It's not an empire; it's more like a company upgrading from a "space cargo squad" to a "space infrastructure contractor."
Previously, Rocket Lab's core label was the Electron small rocket.
It puts small satellites into orbit.
That doesn't sound as震撼 as Starship or as sexy as Starlink, but it's very practical.
Because not every client needs SpaceX's large payload ride-sharing service.
Some research institutions, small satellite companies, and defense clients don't need maximum payload; they need controllable timing, precise orbit, flexible missions, and go-when-you-want.
It's like going to the airport.
Sometimes you don't necessarily want to take a bus that circles the whole city; you might just want a private car.
It's okay to be a bit more expensive, but it's punctual, direct, and controllable.
That's the value of Electron.
But if RKLB only had Electron, it would at most be a small rocket company, and the market wouldn't give it a high ceiling.
What really made Wall Street start recalculating is Neutron.
Neutron is Rocket Lab's medium-class reusable rocket under development, and the most important valuation switch for the company over the next three to five years.
So why is Neutron so important?
Because the demand for commercial space is changing.
In the past, when people talked about the space economy, it was more about storytelling.
Who goes to Mars, who lands on the moon, who launches satellites, who takes a photo of Earth from space.
It sounds romantic and inspiring.
But to be realistic, it's relatively far from financial reports.
Now it's different.
Low Earth orbit satellites are increasing, national defense space architectures are becoming more important, lunar missions are moving from PPTs to budgets, and commercial clients are no longer just asking "can we get to space" but starting to ask "can we get to space stably, on time, and in batches."
This change is actually very important.
It's like building highways in the US.
At first, people only cared about whether there was a road.
Later, they started caring about logistics, toll stations, service areas, warehouses, power, communications, and maintenance systems.
The space economy is the same.
Rockets are just the entrance; what's really valuable is the entire infrastructure chain.
That's Rocket Lab's opportunity.
It doesn't just say "I can help you launch."
It also does Space Systems.
In plain terms, clients not only buy a ticket to space from it, but can also have it build satellites, components, platforms, propulsion systems, and mission integration.
What do space projects fear most?
Not being a bit expensive.
What they fear most is uncertainty.
The satellite is built, but the interface doesn't match.
The equipment is ready, but the launch window is missed.
A supplier delays six months, and the entire project cost explodes.
If Rocket Lab can connect manufacturing, components, platforms, and launch, it's not just selling rockets, but certainty.
That's why RKLB cannot be simply understood as "riding on SpaceX's coattails."
If you find this logic valuable, you can first give Zonghai Finance a like, and also subscribe to follow Brother Hai slowly.
Because the next part is the most critical: whether RKLB is an opportunity or a valuation trap, it's not just about how high the rocket flies, but whether the three bills can actually match up.
First, look at the first bill: the valuation anchor brought by SpaceX's IPO.
According to current market discussions, SpaceX's target valuation this time is close to $1.75 trillion, the fundraising scale may reach $75 billion, and the expected offering price is $135 per share.
But the most interesting and also the cruelest part of the US capital market is right here.
It often prices not current profits, but the control rights of the next decade.
What SpaceX controls is not a single business, but the imagination of a complete set of space infrastructure.
Falcon proved that reusable rockets can be commercialized.
Starlink proved that low Earth orbit satellite internet can scale.
If Starship gradually runs smoothly in the future, heavy payload, lunar transportation, deep space missions, defense transportation, and even orbital AI data centers will all be re-evaluated by the market.
So the impact of SpaceX's IPO is not just its own listing.
It will force Wall Street to ask a bigger question:
If SpaceX is worth that much, how should other space companies in the public market be valued?
At this point, companies like Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Redwire, and Planet Labs will all be re-compared.
But among these companies, RKLB has a unique aspect.
It's not a pure concept company.
It already has launch records, revenue, orders, defense clients, and Neutron as a future catalyst.
So after SpaceX ignites, RKLB is easily lit by money.
But note: being lit does not mean fundamentals are immediately realized.
It's more like the market pulling forward the imagination of the next three years to trade today.
It can rise quickly, and it can fall without much emotion.
Especially for high-valuation growth stocks, when Wall Street turns, it's really fast.
Now look at the second bill: the official catalyst from NASA's Artemis III.
Many people hear Artemis III and think it's just the US going to the moon again.
Sentiment comes, camera shoots, astronauts jump, market hypes, story ends.
But what investors should really focus on this time is not romance, but the system.
NASA is not just shouting "we're going back to the moon."
It is incorporating commercial space companies into the mission system, verifying step by step.
Orion spacecraft needs testing, commercial human landing systems need testing, SpaceX's Starship HLS needs to advance, and Blue Origin's Blue Moon also needs to compete.
NASA's role is increasingly like a general contractor, while commercial companies are like a batch of subcontractors.
From the capital market perspective, this is not about who can tell the best Mars story, but who can win orders, deliver systems, pass tests, and survive to the next contract.
That's where the space economy truly moves from story to budget.
If the lunar economy continues to advance in the future, the biggest beneficiaries may not be those who shout slogans the loudest, but those who can deliver cargo, make equipment, connect communications, and keep systems running stably.
To put it more everyday, space doesn't just need heroes.
It also needs plumbers, truck drivers, warehouse managers, equipment suppliers, and system integrators.
That's the "sell shovels" logic in commercial space.
Rocket Lab's position is right here.
It's not trying to directly challenge SpaceX and pull Musk off the throne.
That's unrealistic and unnecessary.
What it really needs to do is, outside of SpaceX, become a more flexible, more focused, and easier second choice for government and commercial clients in the US commercial space system.
Next, the third bill is the hardest.
That is RKLB's own financial reports and orders.
This part is very important.
Because stories can only make the stock price fly for a while; financial reports determine whether it will fall and hurt.
Rocket Lab's Q1 2026 revenue reached $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year.
This growth rate among space stocks can no longer be simply called "not bad."
It's more like telling the market:
I'm not a company that only talks PPTs; I'm a company that can really turn contracts into revenue.
More importantly, GAAP gross margin reached 38.2%, backlog reached $2.2 billion, and liquidity exceeded $2 billion.
These three data points together are interesting.
Revenue growth shows business is running.
Gross margin improvement shows the company isn't losing money as it scales.
Backlog growth shows clients have already queued up demand.
Liquidity exceeding $2 billion shows the company still has money to continue advancing Neutron, so the rocket won't run out of fuel before it even launches.
Moreover, Rocket Lab secured the largest launch contract in company history.
A confidential client directly ordered 5 Neutron launches plus 3 Electron launches, with mission windows covering 2026 to 2029.
Note: the key to this contract is not just the amount.
It's the timing.
Neutron hasn't even had its maiden flight, but the client has already booked seats.
What does this mean?
At the very least, it shows the client recognizes three things.
First, Electron has proven that Rocket Lab can really fly, not just draw rockets on paper.
Second, there is indeed a gap in the medium payload market, as not all missions are suitable for riding SpaceX's "big bus."
Third, US-made, defense-compliant, dedicated launch services are increasingly valuable in the current geopolitical environment.
So once Neutron successfully launches, RKLB's story will upgrade from "small rocket service provider" to "medium payload platform."
That's valuation elasticity.
But, friends, the biggest fear in investing is only looking at elasticity, not at breaking points.
RKLB's biggest risk is precisely Neutron.
Rocket development is not like making a mobile app.
If a mobile app crashes, you can update a patch.
If a rocket fails during testing, engine problems, tank problems, supply chain delays - it's not about delaying a product launch by a few days; the entire valuation model needs to be recalculated.
Neutron had already pushed its maiden flight target to Q4 2026 due to issues with the first-stage tank testing.
This milestone is now RKLB's big test.
If it flies smoothly, the market will say:
Look, Rocket Lab really upgraded from small rocket to medium platform.
But if it continues to delay, the market will also be realistic:
Sorry, you're still a high-valuation loss-making growth stock, so let's take a round of cuts first.
So RKLB is not a low-risk asset.
It's more like a space ticket that is being checked in.
When you buy it, you're not buying today's profits, but whether the commercial space infrastructure expansion in the next few years can materialize.
That's also why I don't recommend using traditional thinking like "cheap or not cheap" to look at it.
RKLB is not cheap now.
The market buys it not because it's like a discounted steak, but because if Neutron, Space Systems, defense orders, and commercial constellation demand all materialize simultaneously, its future revenue ceiling could significantly raise.
But conversely, if the realization speed falls behind the valuation, the high valuation can become a knife that cuts back.
It's like buying a house in the US.
If house prices in an area are very high now, it doesn't necessarily mean you can't buy.
The key is whether there will be jobs, schools, transportation, and commercial amenities in the future.
If these all materialize, today's high price may be digested by the future.
But if an agent only tells you that a subway will be built in front of the door, a business district will be built, and big companies will come, and ten years later it's still an empty lot.
Then what you bought is not growth, but fantasy.
RKLB is the same.
Its investment logic is not "cheap now."
It's "whether the future can support today's high price."
So ordinary investors must track five indicators going forward.
First, whether Neutron's maiden flight continues to be delayed.
Second, after the big order of 5 Neutron launches, whether more clients follow.
Third, whether backlog can continue to grow and actually convert to revenue.
Fourth, whether Space Systems' revenue share and gross margin can continue to improve.
Fifth, after SpaceX's IPO, whether money spills over to RKLB or instead drains from RKLB to buy SpaceX itself.
This last point is actually very critical.
Many people only think that SpaceX's IPO will drive the space sector.
But it could also cause capital diversion.
Before listing, the market will hype "who is the SpaceX alternative."
After listing, if big money rushes to buy SpaceX itself, related stocks like RKLB, ASTS, RDW may instead experience short-term volatility.
So this sector cannot just watch the excitement; you need to watch where money flows.
If SpaceX opens high and rises after listing, space economy sentiment continues to spread, while RKLB breaks out with volume, Neutron milestones continue to advance, and orders continue to increase.
Then it means money is really doing industry revaluation.
But if SpaceX surges and then falls after listing, and RKLB follows with heavy volume sell-off, it means the previous rally was more about sentiment than fundamental revaluation.
At that point, don't try to hold on.
The market shows no mercy, especially for high-valuation growth stocks; when a pullback comes, it's often faster than you think.
If you've read this far, it shows you're not just here to hear rocket stories, but really want to grasp the investment logic.
If you find today's content helpful, you can give Zonghai Finance a like, bookmark it, and subscribe conveniently.
Later, if there are changes in Neutron's maiden flight milestone, SpaceX's IPO first-day performance, or RKLB's new contracts, I will continue to track this line for everyone.
Finally, Brother Hai summarizes.
The core significance of SpaceX's IPO is not for everyone to shout how great Musk is, but that it may redefine the valuation anchor of commercial space.
The core significance of NASA's Artemis III is not simple lunar landing nostalgia, but that the US is incorporating commercial space companies into the long-term space infrastructure system.
Rocket Lab's core significance is that it is one of the few companies in the public market that can clearly explain three things at the same time:
It can launch, it has orders, and it has a catalyst to upgrade to a medium payload platform.
But this is definitely not a signal to blindly buy.
RKLB's opportunities are clear.
SpaceX valuation spillover, commercial space revaluation, Neutron's maiden flight, $2.2 billion backlog, Space Systems vertical integration, dual defense and commercial demand.
Risks are equally clear.
Neutron delays, rocket test failures, high valuation, ongoing losses, SpaceX itself sucking away capital, macro interest rates suppressing growth stocks.
So my view is direct, but not impulsive direct.
RKLB is a high-elasticity target worth tracking in the space economy, but it's not a safe bet for blind all-in.
You can put it on your watchlist, but don't treat it as a guaranteed money rocket ticket.
Truly mature investing is not about rushing when you see a rocket, but looking at orders, cash flow, launch cadence, and whether risks are fully reflected in the price.
Finally, ask everyone a question:
After SpaceX's IPO, do you think money will continue to spill over to RKLB, or will it directly drain RKLB short-term?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
This is Zonghai Finance, see you next time.
